When food prices rise sharply, families often change what they eat rather than how much they eat. New research suggests those shifts can quietly influence children’s growth and long-term health, even years after an economic crisis ends.
In a study published in Global Food Security, researchers from the University of Bonn examined the lasting effects of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, when economic turmoil drove up the price of rice, Indonesia’s most important staple food. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, the team followed children who experienced those price increases and tracked their physical development into young adulthood.
The researchers found that higher food prices during early childhood were associated with increased rates of stunting, a marker of chronic undernutrition. Specifically, crisis-related price increases were linked to a 3.5 percentage point rise in childhood stunting. At the same time, children who were most affected early in life were more likely to have higher body mass index and a greater likelihood of obesity years later.
“We see that a massive price shock not only has a short-term impact, but can also affect the long-term physical development of children,” said lead author Elza S. Elmira.
At first glance, the combination of early undernutrition and later obesity may seem contradictory. The researchers suggest it reflects how households respond when food budgets are under pressure. Families tend to preserve calorie intake while cutting back on more expensive, nutrient-rich foods.
“In times of crisis, families save less on calories than on more expensive, nutrient-rich foods,” Elmira said.
This pattern can lead to what researchers describe as a hidden micronutrient deficiency, where children consume enough energy but fall short on vitamins and minerals critical for healthy growth.
The study also found that the effects were not evenly distributed. Children in urban areas were more strongly affected than those in rural regions, where some households could grow their own food. Maternal education played a role as well, with children of mothers who had lower levels of education experiencing greater impacts.
“Deprivation in early childhood can have lifelong effects,” said co-author Prof. Dr. Matin Qaim, noting that growth impairments are often accompanied by higher risks of obesity and chronic disease later in life.
He added that policies focused only on calorie availability may miss important aspects of diet quality during sensitive stages of development.
The authors caution that their findings reflect statistical associations rather than proof of cause and effect, and that not all potential confounding factors can be ruled out over long time periods. Still, they argue the results are relevant today as food price volatility increases globally due to conflict, climate extremes and economic instability.
The study’s takeaway is not that expensive food directly causes obesity, but that economic shocks can reshape diets in ways that undermine long-term health, especially for children. Protecting access to nutrient-rich foods, not just sufficient calories, may be critical when food prices rise.
The researchers reported no competing financial interests. Lead author Elza S. Elmira received a stipend from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD).