Long-term patterns of alcohol consumption may play a larger role in cancer deaths than previously estimated, according to a new study that examined more than seven decades of national data from Australia.
Researchers found that reducing average alcohol consumption by one liter per person each year was associated with lower mortality from several alcohol-related cancers, including cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, liver, colorectum and breast. The study was led by scientists at La Trobe University and published in the British Journal of Cancer.
Using national mortality records, alcohol and tobacco consumption data and health expenditure information dating back to 1950, the researchers examined how long-term, population-level alcohol exposure was associated with cancer deaths over time. Rather than focusing on individual drinking habits, the analysis looked at how shifts in average consumption across the population aligned with changes in cancer mortality decades later.
The researchers estimated that alcohol exposure contributed to a substantial share of cancer deaths, particularly among men and older adults. Alcohol was linked to about 45% of male upper aerodigestive tract cancer deaths, nearly half of male liver cancer deaths and smaller but still measurable shares of colorectal and breast cancer deaths. These estimates were higher than those reported in earlier Australian studies, which the authors attribute to the cumulative effects of drinking over many decades.
The strongest associations were seen in people aged 50 and older, an age group more likely to experience the long-term health effects of sustained alcohol exposure. The researchers noted that older cohorts tend to have higher lifetime alcohol consumption than younger generations, which may influence future cancer trends as populations age.
When the researchers modeled what might happen if average alcohol consumption were reduced by one liter per person per year, they found modest but meaningful declines in cancer deaths across several cancer types. These reductions ranged from about 1% to nearly 4%, depending on cancer type and sex. While those percentage changes may appear small, the authors noted that at a population level, even slight shifts in exposure can translate into a large number of lives over time.
“The study provides robust evidence that reducing population-level alcohol consumption in Australia could substantially lower mortality from UADT, colorectal, male liver and female breast cancers, particularly among older adults,” said lead author Associate Professor Jason Jiang.
The researchers emphasized that their findings reflect long-term, population-level associations rather than individual risk predictions. The study does not suggest that a single change in drinking habits will immediately alter cancer risk, nor does it estimate the impact for any one person. Instead, it adds to evidence that alcohol-related cancer risk accumulates gradually and becomes more visible later in life.
Although the analysis focused on Australia, the authors note that the biological links between alcohol and cancer are well established and relevant beyond one country. Still, they caution that results should be interpreted within the context of national drinking patterns, policies and health care systems.
Taken together, the findings reinforce the idea that alcohol exposure functions much like other long-term dietary risks: its health effects are shaped by duration and cumulative intake rather than short-term behavior. The study offers context about how drinking patterns across decades can influence cancer risk over a lifetime, rather than a prescription for abstinence or immediate change.
This research was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Research Council. Open access funding was enabled and organized by CAUL and its member institutions.