The occasional glass of wine or beer may not feel like a health decision. For many people, alcohol is simply part of a restaurant meal, a social gathering or a quiet evening at home. It has also long carried a lingering reputation as something that might be beneficial in moderation, particularly for heart health.
But a new study suggests that the overall picture is less reassuring. Researchers found no significant net health benefit from drinking alcohol at any level. Instead, the risk of alcohol-related death, disability and chronic disease increased as people drank more, including at levels that many Americans may view as moderate.
The study, published in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, used statistical modeling to estimate how average alcohol consumption over a lifetime is associated with the risk of health problems caused by alcohol. It does not mean that having a drink will cause cancer, heart disease or an early death. It does suggest that alcohol-related risk exists along a continuum, rather than appearing only after someone crosses a clear line between moderate and heavy drinking.
“This study provides the most comprehensive U.S. estimates to date of lifetime risks of alcohol-attributable mortality and morbidity, showing that even moderate levels of consumption increase the risk of premature death and disability,” said study co-author Katherine M. Keyes, Ph.D., a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. “No protective effect of drinking was observed even at low levels.”
The researchers combined several sources of information, including national health surveys, U.S. Census Bureau population data, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mortality data and morbidity data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. They also reviewed research on health conditions that have been causally linked to alcohol, including certain cancers, cardiovascular disease, liver disease and injuries.
The results provide a more detailed look at how risk changes across different levels of consumption. Among both men and women, drinking more than roughly seven standard drinks per week was associated with a lifetime risk of alcohol-attributable death greater than 1 in 1,000. At more than 8.5 drinks per week, that estimated risk rose above 1 in 100. For men drinking 14 drinks per week, the estimated lifetime risk of dying from an alcohol-related cause was 1 in 25, or 4%.
Those numbers require context. The study estimated alcohol-attributable risk at a population level. It cannot predict an individual person’s outcome based solely on the number of drinks they have in a week. Age, sex, genetics, existing health conditions and drinking patterns can all affect risk. The researchers also found that how much someone drinks on a single occasion matters, particularly for injuries and some chronic diseases.
A standard drink in the United States typically means 12 ounces of regular beer, 5 ounces of wine or 1.5 ounces of distilled spirits. Drinks served at restaurants, bars or at home may contain more than one standard serving, especially when alcohol content or pour size is higher.
The findings arrive as federal guidance on alcohol has become less specific. The 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans advise people to “consume less alcohol for better overall health.” The previous guidelines included numerical limits, recommending no more than two drinks per day for men and no more than one drink per day for women when alcohol was consumed.
The new study does not identify a single threshold below which drinking is completely harmless. It also does not suggest that every drink carries the same degree of risk. An occasional drink is not equivalent to drinking several drinks per day. Instead, the findings reinforce a simpler message: Less alcohol is generally associated with lower risk.
Questions about moderate drinking and heart health have complicated that message for years. Some observational studies have found associations between low levels of alcohol consumption and lower rates of ischemic heart disease or stroke. The researchers included those possible protective associations in their model but found that they did not outweigh the broader risks linked to alcohol, including cancer and injury.
That distinction matters. A habit does not become health-promoting simply because it may be associated with a lower risk of one condition. Looking at a wider range of outcomes can change the balance.
The study also has limitations. Some of the underlying risk estimates came from observational research, which can be influenced by differences between people who drink and those who do not. The analysis focused on average weekly consumption and drinking per occasion but did not comprehensively evaluate factors such as beverage type, how quickly alcohol was consumed or whether it was consumed with food.
The practical takeaway is not that adults should panic over a glass of wine at dinner or feel judged for drinking socially. It’s that alcohol should not be treated as a wellness habit. People who do not drink do not need to start for health reasons. For those who do drink, reducing the amount or frequency can be a reasonable way to lower risk.
“Even low levels of alcohol use come with health risks,” said lead study author Kevin Shield, Ph.D., an associate professor at the University of Toronto and a senior scientist at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health. “And that risk continues to increase the more someone drinks.”
The study was supported by Synergy Enterprises Inc. and the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.