Alcohol is already linked to several cancers, including cancers of the mouth, breast and colon. A new analysis suggests pancreatic cancer may need to be part of that conversation, too.
The study, published in the International Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research, reviewed existing cohort studies that followed groups of people over time. Researchers found that higher alcohol intake was associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer, with risk rising among people who drank more than 24 grams of alcohol per day. That is a little under two standard Canadian drinks and roughly about 1.7 standard drinks in the U.S.
The finding does not mean every person who drinks at that level will develop pancreatic cancer. It also does not come from a randomized trial, so it cannot predict an individual person’s risk. But as a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies, the paper adds to growing evidence that alcohol may play a role in pancreatic cancer risk at the population level.
“Right now, the World Health Organization lists seven types of cancer, including mouth, breast and colon cancer, as being linked to alcohol consumption,” said Tim Naimi, director of the University of Victoria’s Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research and an author of the study. “There has been a growing body of evidence pointing to alcohol consumption as a cause of pancreatic cancer, and this analysis is a significant contribution to that evidence.”
Pancreatic cancer is less common than some other cancers, but it is often serious because it can be difficult to detect early. The University of Victoria news release noted that only about 12% of Canadians survive five years after diagnosis.
For this analysis, researchers reviewed cohort studies on alcohol intake and pancreatic cancer. Cohort studies can be useful because they follow people over time rather than asking them to recall everything after a diagnosis. Still, they are observational, which means they can show patterns and associations but cannot prove what caused cancer in any one person.
One issue the researchers focused on was “former drinker” bias. In alcohol research, some studies compare people who drink with people who identify as abstainers. But that abstainer group can include former heavy drinkers who quit because of health problems. If those former drinkers are grouped with people who never or rarely drank, it can make the comparison less clear.
“Often people who identify as abstainers in these cohort studies used to be heavy drinkers who quit due to health reasons, meaning they may still be feeling long-term effects of alcohol use, including cancer cases,” said Jinhui Zhao, a scientist at the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research and the paper’s lead author. “There has been a push in recent years to take this bias into account to truly measure alcohol’s health impacts.”
After accounting for former drinker bias, along with factors such as age, smoking and socioeconomic status, the researchers reported a dose-response relationship. In plain language, that means higher alcohol intake was linked with higher pancreatic cancer risk.
The study found that drinking more than 24 grams of alcohol per day was associated with a 10% to 30% increase in risk of developing pancreatic cancer. That is a relative increase in risk, not a statement that someone’s personal chance of developing pancreatic cancer rises by 10 to 30 percentage points.
That distinction matters. Pancreatic cancer remains less common than many other cancers, so a higher relative risk does not mean the disease is likely for most people who drink. But even modest increases in risk can matter across a large population, especially for a cancer that is often hard to treat.
The findings also fit into a broader shift in how public health researchers talk about alcohol. For years, alcohol’s cancer risks were less widely understood than its links to liver disease, impaired driving or addiction. More recent research and public health messaging have increasingly emphasized that alcohol can contribute to cancer risk even outside heavy drinking.
“After rigorously analyzing the existing evidence, we strongly believe it’s time to add pancreatic cancer to the list of alcohol-related cancers,” Naimi said.
This study was financially supported by the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research of the University of Victoria Endowment Fund.