A global study has found that economic downturns — even small ones — can significantly increase the risk of childhood malnutrition, including both undernutrition and obesity.
Researchers at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) analyzed data from more than 1.6 million children across 68 low- and middle-income countries. They found that income losses during pregnancy or the first 1,000 days of life — a crucial period for child development — were associated with higher risks of stunting (low height for age), wasting (low weight for height) and obesity.
“Given the multiple crises the world is currently facing, we need to better understand how economic shocks and poverty influence malnutrition in children, in order to better design interventions and prevention strategies,” said Davide Rasella, ICREA researcher at ISGlobal and coordinator of the study.
The team combined 230 national household surveys with income data from the World Inequality Database. By linking economic patterns to individual birth years, they were able to identify critical windows of vulnerability.
“Our analysis is the first to account for economic heterogeneity within each country and look at critical time windows and different forms of malnutrition, including overweight and obesity,” said Natanael Silva, predoctoral researcher at ISGlobal and first author of the study.
Key findings include:
Income drops during the year of birth raised the risk of stunting.
Shocks in the year of the interview were most associated with wasting (a rapid loss of weight).
Children exposed to downturns during their first 1,000 days had a 30% higher risk of being both stunted and overweight — a concerning double burden of malnutrition.
The effects differed by household income: poorer children were more vulnerable to undernutrition, while wealthier children saw greater increases in overweight and obesity following economic shocks.
“Our findings show that income shocks can significantly increase the risk of various forms of childhood malnutrition, and help identify critical windows for action,” Rasella said.
The study was published in The Lancet Global Health and was supported by the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities of Spain, the Spanish State Research Agency, the Government of Catalonia through the CERCA Program and the Wellcome Trust.